vineri, 28 septembrie 2012

The danger of forced sale auctions (by Marian DUSAN)

IMF Romania mission chief Erik de Vrijer, said at the end of his August visit that Romania will not get a letter of intent for a new loan unless the public companies of Oltchim and Transgaz go private.

In other words, IMF has been blackmailing the Romanian government: either you sell those companies or you won’t see a dime. In the case of Oltchim, going private is a good thing for Romania has the company has registered a € 165 Mil loss in the last three years alone. These losses were covered with money from the state budget, meaning our money. By doing some simple math, we can see that each Romanian citizen made an early payment to Oltchim of 3 euros. By way of comparison, we can easily see that during the last three years each Romanian has received form Petrom nearly 4 euros in contributions to the state budget. Therefore, from this point of view, the privatisation of underachieving companies becomes a must.

However, there is also a problem. Economy is governed by the unwritten rule of supply and demand: when the demand is bigger the price grows, whereas when the supply increases, the prices decreases. When IMF put their foot down and say “Sell NOW”, basically the supply increases a lot. Therefore, any investor interested in Oltchim will make a smaller bid because they know the State MUST sell. Instead of making a sale for 10 ROL, we will be making a forced sale for 2-3 ROL.

I believe this to be a harsh lesson for Romania and for our political classes. The crisis is still rampant, and delaying any necessary measures is a costly alternative. Either we do what must be done when it must be done, or we risk of being scolded by Romania’s creditors who will force us to do the right thing, but under their terms, who may or may not be in our best interest.

Pericolul licitatiilor fortate (de Marian DUSAN)

Seful misiunii Fondului Monetar International, Erik de Vrijer, a declarat la sfarsitul vizitei din august ca nu va inmana scrisoare de intentie decat cu conditia privatizarii Oltchim si Transgaz.


Cu alte cuvinte FMI a santajat guvernul: vindeti companiile sau nu vedeti niciun ban. In cazul Oltchim, privatizarea este un lucru benific pentru Romania pentru ca doar in ultimii trei ani pierderile cumulate au fost de 165 mil Euro. Aceste pierderi au fost acoperite de la bugetul statului, la care contribuim toti. Facand un calcul simplu (si foarte aproximativ) in fiecare an, fiecare roman platea catre Oltchim cam 3 euro pe an. Daca facem o comparatie, in ultimii trei ani, fiecare roman a primit de la Petrom aproape 4 euro reprezentand contributii la bugetul de stat. Cred ca, privit din acest punct de vedere, privatizarea companiilor neperformante este obligatorie

Totusi, exista si o problema. In economie exista o lege nescrisa a cererii si ofertei: cand cererea este mai mare pretul creste, iar cand oferta este mai mare, pretul scade. Cand FMI bate cu pumnul in masa si spune „vindeti ACUM”, practic, oferta creste mult. Orice investitor interesat de preluarea companiei va oferi mai putini bani, pentru ca statul TREBUIE sa vanda. In loc sa vindem pe 10 lei, vom vinde fortat pe 2-3 lei.

Cred ca este o lectie dura pentru Romania si pentru mediul politic. Suntem inca in criza, iar amanarea masurilor necesare este o masura paguboasa. Ori facem ce trebuie cand trebuie, ori creditorii Romaniei ne vor trage de urechi si ne vor forta sa facem ce trebuie, insa in conditiile impuse de ei si mai putin in dezavantajul nostru.